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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.49+4.26vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.34+3.71vs Predicted
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3Ocean County College2.88+4.19vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.57+7.44vs Predicted
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5Washington College3.07+1.41vs Predicted
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6Monmouth University1.95+4.36vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+0.48vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.06-1.65vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-4.45vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.04+0.19vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+0.40vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University-0.10+4.09vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.99-3.05vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-7.33vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.48-6.58vs Predicted
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16Queen's University0.88-2.27vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.03-2.16vs Predicted
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19Drexel University0.72-5.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.26Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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5.71U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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7.19Ocean County College2.880.1%1st Place
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11.44George Washington University1.570.0%1st Place
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6.41Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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10.36Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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7.48Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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6.35SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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4.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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10.19Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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11.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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16.09Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
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9.95Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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6.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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8.42Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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13.73Queen's University0.880.0%1st Place
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15.84Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
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13.98Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Houck | 12.8% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Devin Laviano | 9.0% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hussain Patel | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 1.7% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 16.8% | 14.1% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Reynolds | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 1.5% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 12.0% | 22.8% | 41.4% |
| John Croll | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Bates | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Blake | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 13.7% | 18.5% | 16.0% | 7.3% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 7.6% | 14.0% | 24.9% | 35.1% |
| Jason Sinclair | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 14.6% | 17.2% | 17.4% | 11.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.