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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.49+4.26vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+2.71vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+8.54vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.34+1.51vs Predicted
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5Washington College3.07+1.33vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.06+0.43vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.04+2.90vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.31vs Predicted
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9Ocean County College2.88-2.03vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.57+1.80vs Predicted
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11Monmouth University1.95-0.57vs Predicted
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12Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-4.26vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.48-4.71vs Predicted
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14Columbia University1.99-4.16vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University-0.10+0.96vs Predicted
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17Drexel University0.72-2.82vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.03-2.15vs Predicted
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19Queen's University0.88-5.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.26Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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4.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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11.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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5.51U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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6.33Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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6.43SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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9.9Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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6.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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6.97Ocean County College2.880.1%1st Place
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11.8George Washington University1.570.0%1st Place
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10.43Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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7.74Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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8.29Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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9.84Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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15.96Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
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14.18Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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15.85Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
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13.55Queen's University0.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Houck | 12.2% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 13.3% | 13.5% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 1.4% |
| Devin Laviano | 12.1% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Reynolds | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Bates | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hussain Patel | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 1.4% |
| Paul Stevens | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.1% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 22.6% | 38.6% |
| Jason Sinclair | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 14.3% | 18.0% | 17.8% | 12.4% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 12.4% | 23.2% | 37.5% |
| Oliver Blake | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 18.2% | 15.2% | 7.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.