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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.51vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.65+3.56vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.81+2.18vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.25+3.04vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.09+2.37vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.24+1.15vs Predicted
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7U. S. Military Academy1.22+3.52vs Predicted
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8Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-0.44vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.53-0.38vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19-0.43vs Predicted
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12Columbia University2.55-5.91vs Predicted
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13Queen's University1.29-2.80vs Predicted
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14Monmouth University-0.23+0.31vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.01-8.11vs Predicted
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17Drexel University1.64-7.92vs Predicted
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18Rutgers University-0.33-3.44vs Predicted
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19Princeton University-1.08-3.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.51U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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5.56Washington College2.650.1%1st Place
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5.18Dartmouth College2.810.1%1st Place
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7.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.250.1%1st Place
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7.37Cornell University2.090.1%1st Place
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7.15SUNY Maritime College2.240.1%1st Place
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10.52U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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7.56Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.1%1st Place
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9.62U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.530.0%1st Place
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10.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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6.09Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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10.2Queen's University1.290.0%1st Place
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14.31Monmouth University-0.230.0%1st Place
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7.89Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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9.08Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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14.56Rutgers University-0.330.0%1st Place
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15.81Princeton University-1.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Edegran | 17.2% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dan Ricker | 10.5% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Scanlon | 12.1% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Nugent | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Liem | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schoene | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 0.8% |
| Christian Geary | 7.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor McGowan | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 4.5% | 1.2% |
| Conor Cashel | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Stubbins | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 1.3% |
| Matthew Marciano | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 21.5% | 29.9% | 19.0% |
| Edward Titcomb | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Chris Myers | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Laine Meelheim | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 18.7% | 31.8% | 20.1% |
| Dylan Ackermamn | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 10.0% | 18.9% | 56.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.