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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.81+4.02vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.56vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.24+3.99vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.25+3.01vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.53+3.31vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+0.92vs Predicted
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8Columbia University2.55-2.04vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19+1.39vs Predicted
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10U. S. Military Academy1.22+0.66vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.09-3.59vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.01-4.06vs Predicted
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13Rutgers University-0.33+1.50vs Predicted
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14Drexel University1.64-4.77vs Predicted
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15Queen's University1.29-4.67vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-1.08-1.33vs Predicted
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18Monmouth University-0.23-3.62vs Predicted
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19Washington College2.65-13.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.02Dartmouth College2.810.2%1st Place
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4.56U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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6.99SUNY Maritime College2.240.1%1st Place
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7.01Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.250.1%1st Place
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9.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.530.0%1st Place
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7.92Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.1%1st Place
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5.96Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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10.39U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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10.66U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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7.41Cornell University2.090.1%1st Place
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7.94Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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14.5Rutgers University-0.330.0%1st Place
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9.23Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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10.33Queen's University1.290.0%1st Place
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15.67Princeton University-1.080.0%1st Place
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14.38Monmouth University-0.230.0%1st Place
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5.74Washington College2.650.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Scanlon | 15.2% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Edegran | 16.4% | 15.5% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schoene | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Alex Nugent | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor McGowan | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Christian Geary | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 3.4% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 0.9% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 10.5% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Alexander Liem | 6.4% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Edward Titcomb | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Laine Meelheim | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 18.1% | 29.0% | 23.0% |
| Chris Myers | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Spencer Stubbins | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 14.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 0.4% |
| Dylan Ackermamn | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 8.6% | 21.1% | 54.8% |
| Matthew Marciano | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 22.1% | 27.9% | 18.5% |
| Dan Ricker | 10.7% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.