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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College2.65+4.48vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.81+3.08vs Predicted
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3Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+4.75vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.25+3.09vs Predicted
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5U. S. Military Academy1.22+5.36vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99-1.18vs Predicted
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7Columbia University2.55-1.00vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.53+1.22vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.24-1.80vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.01-2.31vs Predicted
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11Queen's University1.29-0.65vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.09-5.56vs Predicted
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14Drexel University1.64-4.78vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University-0.33-0.45vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19-5.40vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-1.08-1.24vs Predicted
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19Monmouth University-0.23-4.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.48Washington College2.650.1%1st Place
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5.08Dartmouth College2.810.1%1st Place
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7.75Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.1%1st Place
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7.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.250.1%1st Place
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10.36U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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4.82U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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6.0Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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9.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.530.0%1st Place
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7.2SUNY Maritime College2.240.1%1st Place
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7.69Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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10.35Queen's University1.290.0%1st Place
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7.44Cornell University2.090.1%1st Place
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9.22Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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14.55Rutgers University-0.330.0%1st Place
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10.6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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15.76Princeton University-1.080.0%1st Place
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14.39Monmouth University-0.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ricker | 12.4% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Scanlon | 14.0% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Alex Nugent | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 1.0% |
| Lukas Edegran | 14.0% | 12.6% | 14.7% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 9.6% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor McGowan | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Schoene | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Edward Titcomb | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Spencer Stubbins | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 14.8% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| Alexander Liem | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Chris Myers | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Laine Meelheim | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 9.3% | 17.3% | 30.1% | 23.0% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 5.1% | 1.0% |
| Dylan Ackermamn | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 10.0% | 22.2% | 53.9% |
| Matthew Marciano | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 9.5% | 21.0% | 27.6% | 19.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.