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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+2.06vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.51+2.53vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.90+0.92vs Predicted
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4Villanova University1.21+3.46vs Predicted
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5Villanova University1.80+1.02vs Predicted
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6University of Virginia3.01-2.43vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.40-2.39vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.67-1.77vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.46-2.18vs Predicted
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10University of Buffalo-0.13-0.79vs Predicted
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11American University-1.62-0.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
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4.53Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
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3.92U. S. Naval Academy2.900.2%1st Place
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7.46Villanova University1.210.0%1st Place
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6.02Villanova University1.800.1%1st Place
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3.57University of Virginia3.010.2%1st Place
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4.61Old Dominion University2.400.1%1st Place
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6.23St. Mary's College of Maryland1.670.1%1st Place
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6.82Cornell University1.460.0%1st Place
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9.21University of Buffalo-0.130.0%1st Place
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10.58American University-1.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Morrill | 24.4% | 21.1% | 18.0% | 14.4% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Spracher | 11.9% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 16.5% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Youngberg | 15.2% | 14.9% | 17.3% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barnhill | 2.1% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 18.6% | 24.7% | 16.0% | 2.5% |
| Andrew Sayre | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 14.9% | 15.1% | 13.8% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 19.2% | 17.9% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Austin | 11.8% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Allison Shane | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 14.9% | 15.4% | 14.3% | 6.9% | 0.3% |
| Collin Clark | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 19.7% | 18.9% | 8.1% | 2.2% |
| Jon Gambacorta | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 15.4% | 48.1% | 16.0% |
| Beatriz Gimenez De Cordoba | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 13.1% | 79.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.