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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+6.78vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine3.43+4.98vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.92+6.47vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii3.83+1.49vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California3.16+3.15vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego2.19+6.86vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California3.12+1.14vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.64-1.71vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara2.15+3.99vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii2.13+2.91vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy2.25+1.17vs Predicted
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12Santa Clara University2.36-0.03vs Predicted
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13University of Washington3.09-4.52vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz1.87+0.59vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles2.63-5.12vs Predicted
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17University of California at Berkeley1.86-2.84vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.75-3.01vs Predicted
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19University of Oregon2.51-7.90vs Predicted
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20University of California at Davis1.68-5.11vs Predicted
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21University of California at Los Angeles1.34-4.30vs Predicted
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23University of Washington1.69-8.07vs Predicted
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26University of California at Berkeley1.18-8.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.78University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.1%1st Place
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6.98University of California at Irvine3.430.1%1st Place
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9.47Stanford University2.920.1%1st Place
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5.49University of Hawaii3.830.1%1st Place
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8.15University of Southern California3.160.1%1st Place
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12.86University of California at San Diego2.190.0%1st Place
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8.14University of Southern California3.120.1%1st Place
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6.29Stanford University3.640.1%1st Place
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12.99University of California at Santa Barbara2.150.0%1st Place
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12.91University of Hawaii2.130.0%1st Place
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12.17California Poly Maritime Academy2.250.0%1st Place
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11.97Santa Clara University2.360.0%1st Place
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8.48University of Washington3.090.1%1st Place
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14.59University of California at Santa Cruz1.870.0%1st Place
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10.88University of California at Los Angeles2.630.0%1st Place
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14.16University of California at Berkeley1.860.0%1st Place
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14.99Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.750.0%1st Place
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11.1University of Oregon2.510.0%1st Place
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14.89University of California at Davis1.680.0%1st Place
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16.7University of California at Los Angeles1.340.0%1st Place
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14.93University of Washington1.690.0%1st Place
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17.09University of California at Berkeley1.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sullivan | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Rex Cameron | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Burroughs | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| William Peterson | 12.3% | 14.1% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Lue | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Eric Alamillo | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.1% |
| Emily Dahl | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Peter Stemler | 11.2% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgane Renoir | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% |
| Jaclyn McLoughlin | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% |
| Matthew Van Rensselaer | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Lindsay Grove | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Felipe Lopez | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Mickail Murawski | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.1% |
| Oscar Jasklowski | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Dan Sundberg | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 6.3% |
| Thomas Maher | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 8.5% |
| Philip Gordon | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| Ryan Lee | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 8.3% |
| Amy Stuyvesant | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 19.4% |
| Alyce Flanagan | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 10.4% |
| Megan Hayes | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 23.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.