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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+2.08vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia3.01+1.68vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.51+1.81vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.90+0.02vs Predicted
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5Villanova University1.21+2.42vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.46+1.00vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.40-2.26vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.67-1.64vs Predicted
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9University of Buffalo0.87-0.87vs Predicted
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10Villanova University1.80-3.92vs Predicted
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11American University-1.62-0.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
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3.68University of Virginia3.010.2%1st Place
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4.81Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
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4.02U. S. Naval Academy2.900.1%1st Place
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7.42Villanova University1.210.0%1st Place
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7.0Cornell University1.460.0%1st Place
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4.74Old Dominion University2.400.1%1st Place
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6.36St. Mary's College of Maryland1.670.1%1st Place
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8.13University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
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6.08Villanova University1.800.1%1st Place
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10.68American University-1.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Morrill | 24.0% | 22.0% | 17.3% | 14.2% | 11.1% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 18.1% | 17.9% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Spracher | 10.6% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 13.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Philip Youngberg | 14.8% | 15.5% | 15.0% | 15.6% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barnhill | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 14.9% | 18.6% | 23.2% | 2.3% |
| Collin Clark | 3.4% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 16.3% | 16.8% | 17.3% | 1.6% |
| Rachel Austin | 11.3% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Allison Shane | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 10.4% | 0.7% |
| Andrew Green | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 18.6% | 32.8% | 6.9% |
| Andrew Sayre | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 14.9% | 13.4% | 6.3% | 0.9% |
| Beatriz Gimenez De Cordoba | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 87.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.