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📊 Prediction Accuracy
72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+2.13vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia3.01+1.61vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.44+0.03vs Predicted
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4Villanova University1.21+3.39vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.40-0.18vs Predicted
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6Villanova University1.80+0.08vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.46-0.48vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.51-3.46vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.24-1.84vs Predicted
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10University of Buffalo-0.13-0.84vs Predicted
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11American University-1.62-0.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
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3.61University of Virginia3.010.2%1st Place
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3.03U. S. Naval Academy3.440.2%1st Place
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7.39Villanova University1.210.0%1st Place
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4.82Old Dominion University2.400.1%1st Place
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6.08Villanova University1.800.0%1st Place
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6.52Cornell University1.460.0%1st Place
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4.54Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
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7.16St. Mary's College of Maryland1.240.0%1st Place
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9.16University of Buffalo-0.130.0%1st Place
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10.57American University-1.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Morrill | 21.9% | 21.4% | 18.1% | 15.5% | 12.4% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 18.0% | 17.2% | 16.9% | 15.3% | 13.2% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eugene Diaz del Rio | 23.8% | 21.7% | 19.7% | 14.3% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barnhill | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 20.4% | 21.4% | 15.4% | 2.0% |
| Rachel Austin | 9.2% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 14.1% | 15.7% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sayre | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 15.2% | 14.8% | 15.8% | 12.9% | 4.1% | 0.3% |
| Collin Clark | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 16.0% | 16.7% | 15.9% | 7.5% | 0.7% |
| Jacob Spracher | 11.2% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 15.3% | 14.2% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Gluskin | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 14.7% | 17.1% | 22.7% | 10.1% | 3.5% |
| Jon Gambacorta | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 13.8% | 48.3% | 15.0% |
| Beatriz Gimenez De Cordoba | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 12.9% | 78.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.