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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+6.50vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont3.63+3.88vs Predicted
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3Tufts University3.37+3.88vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.15+3.69vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.89+3.72vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.35+1.04vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.23+0.41vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.97+0.48vs Predicted
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10University of Miami3.25-2.68vs Predicted
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11Harvard University2.53-0.93vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-5.20vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.05-4.60vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.84-4.81vs Predicted
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15University of Connecticut1.96-3.30vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University3.36-9.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.5Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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5.88University of Vermont3.630.1%1st Place
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6.88Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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7.69Roger Williams University3.150.1%1st Place
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8.72Bowdoin College2.890.1%1st Place
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7.04Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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7.41Yale University3.230.1%1st Place
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8.48Boston College2.970.1%1st Place
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7.32University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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10.07Harvard University2.530.0%1st Place
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6.8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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8.4Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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9.19Northeastern University2.840.0%1st Place
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11.7University of Connecticut1.960.0%1st Place
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6.93Salve Regina University3.360.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Renehan | 7.8% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 11.0% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| William Hutchings | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 3.9% |
| Jeff Goodrich | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.0% |
| Matt Johnson | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| Rob Struckett | 9.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Ian Donahue | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% |
| William Howard | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
| Caitlin Watson | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 15.2% |
| David Alfonso | 8.2% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% |
| Drew Shea | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% |
| Conor Lodge | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 8.7% |
| Michael Rottier | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 15.3% | 35.2% |
| Kyle Carney | 8.0% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.