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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.7%
Within 2 Positions
5.4
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+6.42vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy0.40+16.96vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.64+2.06vs Predicted
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5University of Washington3.09+3.06vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine3.43+0.73vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.92+1.85vs Predicted
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8University of Oregon2.76+1.28vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California3.12-0.89vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.75+3.16vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California3.16-4.34vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego2.19-1.02vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles2.63-3.97vs Predicted
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15Santa Clara University1.04+2.01vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Cruz1.87-2.08vs Predicted
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17University of Hawaii3.83-11.59vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles1.34-2.29vs Predicted
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20University of California at Santa Barbara2.15-7.50vs Predicted
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21University of Washington1.69-6.66vs Predicted
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22University of Hawaii2.13-9.78vs Predicted
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24University of California at Davis1.68-9.37vs Predicted
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25University of California at Berkeley1.18-8.64vs Predicted
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26University of California at Berkeley1.86-12.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.42University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.1%1st Place
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18.96California Poly Maritime Academy0.400.0%1st Place
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6.06Stanford University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.06University of Washington3.090.1%1st Place
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6.73University of California at Irvine3.430.1%1st Place
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8.85Stanford University2.920.0%1st Place
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9.28University of Oregon2.760.1%1st Place
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8.11University of Southern California3.120.1%1st Place
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14.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.750.0%1st Place
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7.66University of Southern California3.160.1%1st Place
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11.98University of California at San Diego2.190.0%1st Place
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10.03University of California at Los Angeles2.630.0%1st Place
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17.01Santa Clara University1.040.0%1st Place
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13.92University of California at Santa Cruz1.870.0%1st Place
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5.41University of Hawaii3.830.1%1st Place
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15.71University of California at Los Angeles1.340.0%1st Place
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12.5University of California at Santa Barbara2.150.0%1st Place
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14.34University of Washington1.690.0%1st Place
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12.22University of Hawaii2.130.0%1st Place
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14.63University of California at Davis1.680.0%1st Place
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16.36University of California at Berkeley1.180.0%1st Place
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13.58University of California at Berkeley1.860.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sullivan | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Davis | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 41.9% |
| Peter Stemler | 10.3% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Felipe Lopez | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Rex Cameron | 11.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Burroughs | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elliot Drake | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Emily Dahl | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Maher | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 3.0% |
| Stephen Lue | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Alamillo | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Oscar Jasklowski | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Wyman | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 16.3% | 15.2% |
| Mickail Murawski | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 3.3% |
| William Peterson | 12.0% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amy Stuyvesant | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 9.1% |
| Morgane Renoir | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Alyce Flanagan | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 3.6% |
| Jaclyn McLoughlin | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Ryan Lee | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 4.9% |
| Megan Hayes | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 12.9% |
| Dan Sundberg | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.