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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.19+6.56vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.70+7.52vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.68+10.32vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont3.39+6.44vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College4.15+2.50vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.16+5.47vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University4.71-1.50vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.90+0.44vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.98-0.85vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.67-0.35vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University4.01-2.78vs Predicted
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12Boston College4.43-5.19vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston3.95-4.85vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University1.51+1.94vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College4.06-7.17vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-7.93vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College3.78-7.92vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University1.83-2.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.56Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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9.52Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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13.32University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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10.44University of Vermont3.390.0%1st Place
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7.5SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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11.47Harvard University3.160.0%1st Place
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5.5Roger Williams University4.710.1%1st Place
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8.44Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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8.15Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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9.65U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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8.22Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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6.81Boston College4.430.1%1st Place
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8.15College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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15.94Salve Regina University1.510.0%1st Place
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7.83Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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8.07St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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9.08Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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15.34Northeastern University1.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Morris | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Massimo Soriano | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Michael Russom | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 17.5% | 16.7% | 10.9% |
| Mackenzie Spencer | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 1.9% |
| Shawn Murray | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Gram Slattery | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 3.3% |
| Alec Anderson | 13.2% | 13.4% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Colin Smith | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Michael Grove | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 0.8% |
| Dillon Paiva | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Anne Haeger | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Ben Spector | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Genevieve Marquardt | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 8.9% | 21.4% | 46.0% |
| Sam Williams | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Fletcher Sims | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Kevin Martland | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Heidi Hood | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 11.1% | 26.6% | 33.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.