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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+9.33vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.05+9.21vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.67+5.67vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College3.44+5.27vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.23+5.12vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College4.05+0.95vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University4.31-1.07vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.83-0.28vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.72-0.85vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.62-1.11vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.28-0.79vs Predicted
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12Boston College3.92-4.26vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.80-5.26vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont2.74-2.13vs Predicted
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15Tufts University4.08-8.28vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania3.16-5.43vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University0.97-0.28vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University2.68-5.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.0%1st Place
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11.21Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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8.67Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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9.27Connecticut College3.440.1%1st Place
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10.12Brown University3.230.0%1st Place
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6.95Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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5.93Roger Williams University4.310.1%1st Place
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7.72U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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8.15Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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8.89College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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10.21SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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7.74Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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7.74Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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11.87University of Vermont2.740.0%1st Place
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6.72Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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10.57University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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16.72Salve Regina University0.970.0%1st Place
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12.2Northeastern University2.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Liberty | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 1.7% |
| Michael Drumm | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Peter Miller | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 1.4% |
| Tyler Rice | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 2.1% |
| Matthew Wefer | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Sean Bouchard | 11.4% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alex Ramos | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Oliver Toole | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Nick Johnstone | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Randall Hartranft | 5.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 2.4% |
| William Bailey | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Hunter Mumma | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 15.4% | 5.3% |
| William Haeger | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 2.4% |
| Mary Clawson | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 8.4% | 72.5% |
| Scott Goodrich | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 17.1% | 6.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.