← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Stanford University3.15+1.86vs Predicted
-
2California Poly Maritime Academy1.62+5.03vs Predicted
-
3University of Hawaii2.41+1.61vs Predicted
-
4California State University Channel Islands0.82+5.28vs Predicted
-
5University of Southern California1.40+2.13vs Predicted
-
6University of Washington1.83+0.04vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+3.35vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-2.25vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Los Angeles1.30-1.78vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Irvine0.49+0.81vs Predicted
-
11San Diego State University0.53+0.19vs Predicted
-
12University of California at San Diego-0.51+2.40vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Berkeley0.31-1.81vs Predicted
-
14Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-2.98vs Predicted
-
15University of California at Davis0.00-2.88vs Predicted
-
16Western Washington University0.54-5.77vs Predicted
-
17Arizona State University0.74-5.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.86Stanford University3.1530.9%1st Place
-
7.03California Poly Maritime Academy1.626.7%1st Place
-
4.61University of Hawaii2.4113.5%1st Place
-
9.28California State University Channel Islands0.823.5%1st Place
-
7.13University of Southern California1.405.5%1st Place
-
6.04University of Washington1.839.5%1st Place
-
10.35University of California at Santa Cruz0.822.9%1st Place
-
5.75University of California at Santa Barbara1.788.1%1st Place
-
7.22University of California at Los Angeles1.305.5%1st Place
-
10.81University of California at Irvine0.491.6%1st Place
-
11.19San Diego State University0.531.8%1st Place
-
14.4University of California at San Diego-0.510.8%1st Place
-
11.19University of California at Berkeley0.312.0%1st Place
-
11.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.511.9%1st Place
-
12.12University of California at Davis0.001.1%1st Place
-
10.23Western Washington University0.543.1%1st Place
-
11.77Arizona State University0.741.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Sitzmann | 30.9% | 22.2% | 17.1% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Erik Anderson | 13.5% | 15.3% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Luke Harris | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Stone | 9.5% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 3.8% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 8.1% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Arin Bekem | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 5.2% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 6.3% |
| Andrew Keller | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 43.2% |
| Wilton Lawton | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 6.6% |
| Max Case | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.0% |
| Sean von Engelbrechten | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 15.1% | 12.8% |
| Nathan Gerber | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 3.6% |
| Aidan Boylan | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 9.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.