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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.15+1.82vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.41+2.63vs Predicted
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3California State University Channel Islands0.82+6.25vs Predicted
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4University of Washington1.83+2.17vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.40+2.00vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-0.18vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University0.54+3.32vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+2.77vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University0.53+2.16vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-0.51+4.47vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine0.49-0.07vs Predicted
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12California Poly Maritime Academy1.62-5.12vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis0.00-0.78vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles1.30-6.68vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University0.74-3.43vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley0.31-4.64vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-6.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.82Stanford University3.1530.5%1st Place
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4.63University of Hawaii2.4115.0%1st Place
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9.25California State University Channel Islands0.823.5%1st Place
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6.17University of Washington1.838.6%1st Place
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7.0University of Southern California1.405.5%1st Place
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5.82University of California at Santa Barbara1.789.3%1st Place
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10.32Western Washington University0.543.1%1st Place
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10.77Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.511.8%1st Place
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11.16San Diego State University0.531.6%1st Place
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14.47University of California at San Diego-0.510.4%1st Place
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10.93University of California at Irvine0.491.8%1st Place
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6.88California Poly Maritime Academy1.626.2%1st Place
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12.22University of California at Davis0.001.3%1st Place
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7.32University of California at Los Angeles1.305.6%1st Place
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11.57Arizona State University0.741.2%1st Place
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11.36University of California at Berkeley0.311.9%1st Place
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10.31University of California at Santa Cruz0.822.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Sitzmann | 30.5% | 23.6% | 17.2% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 15.0% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Benjamin Stone | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 9.3% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 3.9% |
| Max Case | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 5.1% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% |
| Andrew Keller | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 44.0% |
| Arin Bekem | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 5.1% |
| Clay Myers | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Sean von Engelbrechten | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 13.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Boylan | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 9.2% |
| Wilton Lawton | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 6.8% |
| George Soliman | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 3.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.