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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.15+1.92vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+3.95vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.41+1.59vs Predicted
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4University of Washington1.83+2.06vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University0.74+6.94vs Predicted
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6California State University Channel Islands0.82+3.46vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy1.62-0.19vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles1.30-0.73vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California1.40-2.00vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+0.30vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-0.10vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University0.54-1.82vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley0.31-1.87vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis0.00-1.78vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-0.51-0.67vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine0.49-5.08vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University0.53-5.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.92Stanford University3.1529.8%1st Place
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5.95University of California at Santa Barbara1.788.8%1st Place
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4.59University of Hawaii2.4113.7%1st Place
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6.06University of Washington1.838.8%1st Place
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11.94Arizona State University0.741.5%1st Place
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9.46California State University Channel Islands0.823.2%1st Place
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6.81California Poly Maritime Academy1.627.4%1st Place
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7.27University of California at Los Angeles1.306.0%1st Place
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7.0University of Southern California1.406.4%1st Place
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10.3University of California at Santa Cruz0.822.4%1st Place
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10.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.511.9%1st Place
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10.18Western Washington University0.542.2%1st Place
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11.13University of California at Berkeley0.312.1%1st Place
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12.22University of California at Davis0.001.0%1st Place
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14.33University of California at San Diego-0.510.5%1st Place
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10.92University of California at Irvine0.492.2%1st Place
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11.02San Diego State University0.531.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Sitzmann | 29.8% | 21.8% | 16.8% | 12.6% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Erik Anderson | 13.7% | 14.9% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Stone | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Boylan | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 11.4% |
| Sterling Maggard | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Clay Myers | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Marianna Shand | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Luke Harris | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| George Soliman | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 4.3% |
| Max Case | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 6.2% |
| Nathan Gerber | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 3.1% |
| Wilton Lawton | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 6.9% |
| Sean von Engelbrechten | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 15.5% | 12.6% |
| Andrew Keller | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 15.2% | 41.6% |
| Arin Bekem | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 6.2% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 5.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.