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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.15+1.88vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.41+2.58vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+2.87vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.40+3.09vs Predicted
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5University of Washington1.83+1.06vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University0.74+5.65vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.82+2.35vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy1.62-0.98vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+1.96vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.31+1.14vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles1.30-3.70vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-1.73vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.70+1.20vs Predicted
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14Western Washington University0.54-3.58vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis0.00-2.65vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine0.49-5.11vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University0.53-6.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.88Stanford University3.1529.5%1st Place
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4.58University of Hawaii2.4114.5%1st Place
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5.87University of California at Santa Barbara1.789.4%1st Place
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7.09University of Southern California1.406.2%1st Place
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6.06University of Washington1.838.0%1st Place
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11.65Arizona State University0.741.9%1st Place
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9.35California State University Channel Islands0.823.5%1st Place
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7.02California Poly Maritime Academy1.626.0%1st Place
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10.96Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.511.9%1st Place
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11.14University of California at Berkeley0.311.8%1st Place
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7.3University of California at Los Angeles1.306.7%1st Place
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10.27University of California at Santa Cruz0.822.1%1st Place
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14.2University of California at San Diego-0.700.4%1st Place
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10.42Western Washington University0.542.5%1st Place
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12.35University of California at Davis0.001.1%1st Place
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10.89University of California at Irvine0.492.2%1st Place
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10.95San Diego State University0.532.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Sitzmann | 29.5% | 24.7% | 15.3% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 14.5% | 13.4% | 14.6% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 9.4% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Stone | 8.0% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Boylan | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 9.7% |
| Sterling Maggard | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Clay Myers | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Max Case | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% |
| Wilton Lawton | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 6.7% |
| Marianna Shand | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| George Soliman | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 4.0% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 14.8% | 39.8% |
| Nathan Gerber | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 4.6% |
| Sean von Engelbrechten | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 16.0% | 13.9% |
| Arin Bekem | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 5.6% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.