← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Los Angeles0.52+3.08vs Predicted
-
2University of Hawaii0.12+3.10vs Predicted
-
3Arizona State University-1.73+9.69vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Davis-2.19+10.37vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Santa Barbara0.25-0.03vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Berkeley-0.58+1.74vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Berkeley-0.75+1.47vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Los Angeles-1.82+5.21vs Predicted
-
9Arizona State University-1.60+3.19vs Predicted
-
10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.80+2.91vs Predicted
-
11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94-1.52vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Irvine-2.30+3.01vs Predicted
-
13University of California at San Diego-1.09-3.05vs Predicted
-
14University of California at San Diego-1.83-0.53vs Predicted
-
15California Poly Maritime Academy-1.03-5.31vs Predicted
-
16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.21-5.63vs Predicted
-
17Arizona State University-1.89-3.82vs Predicted
-
18University of California at San Diego-1.10-8.03vs Predicted
-
19University of California at Los Angeles-1.41-7.68vs Predicted
-
20University of California at Irvine-1.55-8.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.08University of California at Los Angeles0.5219.7%1st Place
-
5.1University of Hawaii0.1212.8%1st Place
-
12.69Arizona State University-1.732.1%1st Place
-
14.37University of California at Davis-2.191.6%1st Place
-
4.97University of California at Santa Barbara0.2514.1%1st Place
-
7.74University of California at Berkeley-0.587.0%1st Place
-
8.47University of California at Berkeley-0.755.5%1st Place
-
13.21University of California at Los Angeles-1.822.0%1st Place
-
12.19Arizona State University-1.602.8%1st Place
-
12.91Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.801.8%1st Place
-
9.48Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.944.3%1st Place
-
15.01University of California at Irvine-2.301.2%1st Place
-
9.95University of California at San Diego-1.093.0%1st Place
-
13.47University of California at San Diego-1.831.8%1st Place
-
9.69California Poly Maritime Academy-1.033.7%1st Place
-
10.37Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.213.9%1st Place
-
13.18Arizona State University-1.892.2%1st Place
-
9.97University of California at San Diego-1.104.5%1st Place
-
11.32University of California at Los Angeles-1.413.1%1st Place
-
11.85University of California at Irvine-1.552.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Connelly | 19.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 13.5% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Fourney | 12.8% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Ng | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% |
| Alexander Lohan | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 17.3% |
| JT Long | 14.1% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emerson Marquez | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Connor Fagan | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Katherine Smith | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% |
| Erin Welker | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% |
| Ryan Schackel | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% |
| Nathan Briar | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Anna Friess | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 13.8% | 21.5% |
| Luc Burkhart | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Maria Guinness | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.3% |
| Blake Doscher | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| lucas kaemmerer | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Tim Crawford | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.4% |
| Laurence Mach | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| Julia Rooney | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% |
| Mason Read | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.