← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Los Angeles0.52+3.02vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara0.25+2.86vs Predicted
-
3University of Hawaii0.12+1.95vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Berkeley-0.75+4.44vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Berkeley-0.58+2.79vs Predicted
-
6California Poly Maritime Academy-1.03+3.53vs Predicted
-
7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94+2.38vs Predicted
-
8University of California at San Diego-1.83+5.24vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Irvine-2.30+5.91vs Predicted
-
10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.21+0.46vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Davis-2.19+3.89vs Predicted
-
12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.80+0.84vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Los Angeles-1.41-1.72vs Predicted
-
14University of California at San Diego-1.09-3.85vs Predicted
-
15University of California at San Diego-1.10-4.85vs Predicted
-
16University of California at Los Angeles-1.82-2.77vs Predicted
-
17Arizona State University-1.73-4.27vs Predicted
-
18Arizona State University-1.89-4.76vs Predicted
-
19University of California at Irvine-1.55-7.15vs Predicted
-
20Arizona State University-1.60-7.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.02University of California at Los Angeles0.5220.0%1st Place
-
4.86University of California at Santa Barbara0.2515.8%1st Place
-
4.95University of Hawaii0.1214.4%1st Place
-
8.44University of California at Berkeley-0.755.3%1st Place
-
7.79University of California at Berkeley-0.586.5%1st Place
-
9.53California Poly Maritime Academy-1.034.2%1st Place
-
9.38Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.944.4%1st Place
-
13.24University of California at San Diego-1.831.8%1st Place
-
14.91University of California at Irvine-2.301.8%1st Place
-
10.46Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.212.8%1st Place
-
14.89University of California at Davis-2.191.1%1st Place
-
12.84Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.802.2%1st Place
-
11.28University of California at Los Angeles-1.412.4%1st Place
-
10.15University of California at San Diego-1.093.7%1st Place
-
10.15University of California at San Diego-1.103.5%1st Place
-
13.23University of California at Los Angeles-1.821.8%1st Place
-
12.73Arizona State University-1.732.1%1st Place
-
13.24Arizona State University-1.891.8%1st Place
-
11.85University of California at Irvine-1.552.1%1st Place
-
12.06Arizona State University-1.602.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Connelly | 20.0% | 18.1% | 15.0% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JT Long | 15.8% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Fourney | 14.4% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Fagan | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Emerson Marquez | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Blake Doscher | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Nathan Briar | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Maria Guinness | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.2% |
| Anna Friess | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 20.8% |
| lucas kaemmerer | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Alexander Lohan | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 15.2% | 17.9% |
| Ryan Schackel | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% |
| Julia Rooney | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Luc Burkhart | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Laurence Mach | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Katherine Smith | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% |
| Alexander Ng | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% |
| Tim Crawford | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.8% |
| Mason Read | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% |
| Erin Welker | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.