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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara0.25+3.81vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles0.52+2.03vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles-1.82+10.07vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley-0.58+3.75vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine-2.30+10.00vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis-2.19+8.63vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.75+1.52vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii0.12-3.04vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-1.41+2.09vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-1.09+0.11vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94-1.64vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.80+1.10vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-1.10-3.07vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-1.89-0.47vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.83-1.79vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-1.60-3.95vs Predicted
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17California Poly Maritime Academy-1.03-7.28vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.21-7.57vs Predicted
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19University of California at Irvine-1.55-7.08vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-1.73-7.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.81University of California at Santa Barbara0.2514.5%1st Place
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4.03University of California at Los Angeles0.5220.4%1st Place
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13.07University of California at Los Angeles-1.821.8%1st Place
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7.75University of California at Berkeley-0.586.5%1st Place
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15.0University of California at Irvine-2.301.2%1st Place
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14.63University of California at Davis-2.191.2%1st Place
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8.52University of California at Berkeley-0.755.4%1st Place
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4.96University of Hawaii0.1214.2%1st Place
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11.09University of California at Los Angeles-1.413.0%1st Place
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10.11University of California at San Diego-1.093.5%1st Place
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9.36Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.944.7%1st Place
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13.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.802.3%1st Place
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9.93University of California at San Diego-1.103.5%1st Place
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13.53Arizona State University-1.891.7%1st Place
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13.21University of California at San Diego-1.831.5%1st Place
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12.05Arizona State University-1.602.5%1st Place
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9.72California Poly Maritime Academy-1.034.0%1st Place
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10.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.213.4%1st Place
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11.92University of California at Irvine-1.552.4%1st Place
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12.78Arizona State University-1.732.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JT Long | 14.5% | 14.8% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Connelly | 20.4% | 16.4% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Smith | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% |
| Emerson Marquez | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Anna Friess | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 22.3% |
| Alexander Lohan | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 16.4% |
| Connor Fagan | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Fourney | 14.2% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Rooney | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% |
| Luc Burkhart | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Briar | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Schackel | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% |
| Laurence Mach | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| Tim Crawford | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.7% |
| Maria Guinness | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% |
| Erin Welker | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% |
| Blake Doscher | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| lucas kaemmerer | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Mason Read | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% |
| Alexander Ng | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.