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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles0.52+3.00vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii0.12+2.93vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley-0.75+5.65vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara0.25+0.87vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.21+5.47vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles-1.41+5.45vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.58+0.61vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-1.10+2.13vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-1.09+0.78vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-2.19+4.43vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-1.60+1.21vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.83+1.33vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.82+0.09vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-1.89-0.71vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-1.73-2.24vs Predicted
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16California Poly Maritime Academy-1.03-6.40vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94-7.76vs Predicted
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18University of California at Irvine-2.30-2.96vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.80-5.85vs Predicted
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20University of California at Irvine-1.55-8.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.0University of California at Los Angeles0.5219.3%1st Place
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4.93University of Hawaii0.1215.0%1st Place
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8.65University of California at Berkeley-0.755.3%1st Place
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4.87University of California at Santa Barbara0.2514.1%1st Place
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10.47Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.213.4%1st Place
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11.45University of California at Los Angeles-1.412.6%1st Place
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7.61University of California at Berkeley-0.587.0%1st Place
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10.13University of California at San Diego-1.103.4%1st Place
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9.78University of California at San Diego-1.093.8%1st Place
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14.43University of California at Davis-2.192.1%1st Place
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12.21Arizona State University-1.602.3%1st Place
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13.33University of California at San Diego-1.831.5%1st Place
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13.09University of California at Los Angeles-1.821.9%1st Place
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13.29Arizona State University-1.892.1%1st Place
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12.76Arizona State University-1.731.6%1st Place
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9.6California Poly Maritime Academy-1.034.2%1st Place
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9.24Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.945.0%1st Place
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15.04University of California at Irvine-2.301.2%1st Place
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13.15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.801.5%1st Place
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11.98University of California at Irvine-1.552.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Connelly | 19.3% | 18.9% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Fourney | 15.0% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Fagan | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| JT Long | 14.1% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| lucas kaemmerer | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| Julia Rooney | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% |
| Emerson Marquez | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Laurence Mach | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| Luc Burkhart | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Alexander Lohan | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 17.1% |
| Erin Welker | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% |
| Maria Guinness | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.6% |
| Katherine Smith | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% |
| Tim Crawford | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 10.1% |
| Alexander Ng | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% |
| Blake Doscher | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Nathan Briar | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Anna Friess | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 21.9% |
| Ryan Schackel | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.0% |
| Mason Read | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.