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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.20+6.10vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.89+1.07vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.47+3.42vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+2.38vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.27-1.09vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.49+0.30vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California1.71-1.39vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.91+0.39vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.66+0.21vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.22+1.28vs Predicted
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11University of Washington1.07-3.64vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-1.27+2.13vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University0.23-3.05vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-0.24-2.25vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-1.41-0.69vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-1.98-0.65vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-0.36-4.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.1California Poly Maritime Academy1.205.5%1st Place
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3.07Stanford University2.8927.0%1st Place
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6.42University of California at Santa Barbara1.477.3%1st Place
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6.38Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.457.1%1st Place
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3.91University of Hawaii2.2717.8%1st Place
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6.3University of California at Los Angeles1.497.8%1st Place
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5.61University of Southern California1.719.0%1st Place
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8.39University of California at Santa Cruz0.913.8%1st Place
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9.21Arizona State University0.663.0%1st Place
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11.28University of California at Berkeley-0.221.5%1st Place
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7.36University of Washington1.075.6%1st Place
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14.13San Diego State University-1.270.4%1st Place
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9.95Western Washington University0.231.8%1st Place
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11.75University of California at San Diego-0.241.1%1st Place
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14.31University of California at Davis-1.410.5%1st Place
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15.35California State University Channel Islands-1.980.4%1st Place
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12.46University of California at Irvine-0.360.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Downey | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reade Decker | 27.0% | 21.9% | 17.0% | 12.6% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caleb Yoslov | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bastien Rasse | 17.8% | 16.2% | 17.3% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Wells | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 9.0% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Matt Grimsley | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% |
| Lucien Freemesser | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 17.5% | 23.4% | 20.3% |
| Kira Blumhagen | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Max Mccreynolds | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 14.2% | 16.7% | 13.1% | 7.6% | 1.8% |
| Juliette Cramer | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 10.3% | 17.1% | 25.3% | 22.2% |
| Kurt Richards | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 10.5% | 20.8% | 48.2% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 15.6% | 17.0% | 12.0% | 4.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.