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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley0.31+3.50vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+2.26vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-0.40vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.98-1.28vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University-1.09+2.74vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California-0.12-0.12vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.70+0.02vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26-1.48vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-1.60-0.21vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-1.58-1.18vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.96-3.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.5University of California at Berkeley0.3110.9%1st Place
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4.26University of California at Santa Cruz0.8211.5%1st Place
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2.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.4529.2%1st Place
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2.72University of California at Berkeley0.9828.5%1st Place
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7.74Arizona State University-1.092.4%1st Place
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5.88University of Southern California-0.125.2%1st Place
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7.02University of California at San Diego-0.703.1%1st Place
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6.52Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.264.2%1st Place
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8.79Arizona State University-1.601.1%1st Place
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8.82University of California at Davis-1.581.1%1st Place
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7.16University of California at Los Angeles-0.962.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilton Lawton | 10.9% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 16.2% | 15.1% | 13.9% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| George Soliman | 11.5% | 13.2% | 15.2% | 17.0% | 14.3% | 12.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 29.2% | 25.3% | 21.0% | 12.8% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Cornell | 28.5% | 24.1% | 19.1% | 13.4% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Camden Wacha | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 13.9% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 13.7% |
| Lara Granucci | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 1.8% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 13.9% | 13.7% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 7.2% |
| Florence Duff | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 3.6% |
| Erin Welker | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 19.5% | 33.1% |
| Luke Melvin | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 20.4% | 31.7% |
| Conrad Kistler | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 14.5% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 8.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.