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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii0.12+3.95vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley-0.75+6.60vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.52+1.09vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-1.10+5.84vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara0.25-0.11vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-0.58+1.70vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94+2.33vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy-1.03+1.64vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.21+1.42vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.80+3.01vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.09-1.05vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-1.89+1.40vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-1.55-0.94vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.41-2.67vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-2.30+0.29vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-1.73-3.28vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-1.60-4.97vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-1.83-4.75vs Predicted
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19University of California at Davis-2.19-4.48vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles-1.82-7.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.95University of Hawaii0.1215.4%1st Place
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8.6University of California at Berkeley-0.754.8%1st Place
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4.09University of California at Los Angeles0.5220.6%1st Place
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9.84University of California at San Diego-1.104.3%1st Place
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4.89University of California at Santa Barbara0.2514.2%1st Place
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7.7University of California at Berkeley-0.585.9%1st Place
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9.33Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.944.0%1st Place
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9.64California Poly Maritime Academy-1.035.0%1st Place
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10.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.213.2%1st Place
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13.01Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.801.8%1st Place
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9.95University of California at San Diego-1.093.1%1st Place
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13.4Arizona State University-1.891.6%1st Place
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12.06University of California at Irvine-1.552.0%1st Place
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11.33University of California at Los Angeles-1.413.0%1st Place
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15.29University of California at Irvine-2.301.4%1st Place
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12.72Arizona State University-1.732.2%1st Place
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12.03Arizona State University-1.602.9%1st Place
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13.25University of California at San Diego-1.831.4%1st Place
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14.52University of California at Davis-2.191.1%1st Place
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12.99University of California at Los Angeles-1.821.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Fourney | 15.4% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Fagan | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Brendan Connelly | 20.6% | 16.2% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laurence Mach | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| JT Long | 14.2% | 13.6% | 13.8% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emerson Marquez | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Briar | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Blake Doscher | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| lucas kaemmerer | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Ryan Schackel | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.7% |
| Luc Burkhart | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Tim Crawford | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.5% |
| Mason Read | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% |
| Julia Rooney | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 2.9% |
| Anna Friess | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 14.3% | 23.2% |
| Alexander Ng | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.5% |
| Erin Welker | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% |
| Maria Guinness | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.1% |
| Alexander Lohan | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 17.1% |
| Katherine Smith | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.