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📊 Prediction Accuracy
70.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.89+2.02vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.27+1.99vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.20+4.11vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.71+1.81vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University0.66+4.18vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.35-0.55vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-0.45vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles1.49-1.62vs Predicted
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9University of Washington1.07-1.55vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.91-1.60vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.24+0.69vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-0.36+0.51vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.27+1.49vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-1.41+0.38vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-1.98+0.36vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University0.23-6.19vs Predicted
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17University of California at Berkeley-0.22-5.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.02Stanford University2.8927.4%1st Place
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3.99University of Hawaii2.2716.9%1st Place
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7.11California Poly Maritime Academy1.205.5%1st Place
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5.81University of Southern California1.719.3%1st Place
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9.18Arizona State University0.662.8%1st Place
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5.45University of California at Santa Barbara1.3510.2%1st Place
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6.55Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.455.9%1st Place
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6.38University of California at Los Angeles1.496.7%1st Place
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7.45University of Washington1.075.8%1st Place
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8.4University of California at Santa Cruz0.913.1%1st Place
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11.69University of California at San Diego-0.240.9%1st Place
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12.51University of California at Irvine-0.360.9%1st Place
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14.49San Diego State University-1.270.4%1st Place
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14.38University of California at Davis-1.410.2%1st Place
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15.36California State University Channel Islands-1.980.1%1st Place
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9.81Western Washington University0.232.5%1st Place
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11.42University of California at Berkeley-0.221.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reade Decker | 27.4% | 22.4% | 17.1% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bastien Rasse | 16.9% | 17.7% | 15.6% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Downey | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 9.3% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Jasper Reid | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Wells | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucien Freemesser | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Max Mccreynolds | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 15.8% | 12.6% | 7.1% | 2.1% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 15.3% | 18.4% | 12.2% | 4.2% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 11.4% | 17.4% | 25.8% | 21.9% |
| Juliette Cramer | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 17.6% | 23.4% | 23.5% |
| Kurt Richards | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 12.3% | 20.8% | 45.7% |
| Kira Blumhagen | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 14.6% | 11.2% | 6.1% | 2.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.