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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.89+2.01vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.49+4.33vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+2.52vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy1.20+3.29vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+1.48vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.71-0.20vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii2.27-2.92vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.91+0.51vs Predicted
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9University of Washington1.07-1.56vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.22+1.35vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-1.41+3.39vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University0.66-2.95vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University0.23-3.01vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-0.24-2.31vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-1.27-0.73vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine-0.36-3.67vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-1.98-1.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.01Stanford University2.8928.2%1st Place
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6.33University of California at Los Angeles1.497.1%1st Place
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5.52University of California at Santa Barbara1.359.7%1st Place
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7.29California Poly Maritime Academy1.204.5%1st Place
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6.48Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.457.4%1st Place
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5.8University of Southern California1.717.8%1st Place
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4.08University of Hawaii2.2716.5%1st Place
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8.51University of California at Santa Cruz0.914.0%1st Place
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7.44University of Washington1.075.5%1st Place
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11.35University of California at Berkeley-0.221.8%1st Place
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14.39University of California at Davis-1.410.3%1st Place
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9.05Arizona State University0.662.6%1st Place
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9.99Western Washington University0.232.2%1st Place
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11.69University of California at San Diego-0.241.2%1st Place
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14.27San Diego State University-1.270.4%1st Place
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12.33University of California at Irvine-0.360.6%1st Place
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15.47California State University Channel Islands-1.980.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reade Decker | 28.2% | 23.6% | 15.8% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Wells | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Downey | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bastien Rasse | 16.5% | 15.8% | 15.9% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lucien Freemesser | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 6.3% | 1.8% |
| Juliette Cramer | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 17.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Kira Blumhagen | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Max Mccreynolds | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 16.4% | 12.3% | 7.3% | 1.9% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 10.8% | 18.2% | 24.2% | 20.9% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 16.4% | 15.3% | 10.1% | 5.5% |
| Kurt Richards | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 11.6% | 21.2% | 47.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.