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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.27+3.08vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.89+1.07vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.71+2.82vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy1.20+3.17vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+0.55vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.49+0.43vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University0.66+2.11vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-1.54vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University0.23+0.98vs Predicted
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10University of Washington1.07-2.81vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.91-2.51vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.22-0.53vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.24-1.41vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-1.41+0.33vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-1.27-0.75vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine-0.36-3.48vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-1.98-1.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.08University of Hawaii2.2717.9%1st Place
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3.07Stanford University2.8926.6%1st Place
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5.82University of Southern California1.718.6%1st Place
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7.17California Poly Maritime Academy1.205.2%1st Place
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5.55University of California at Santa Barbara1.359.6%1st Place
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6.43University of California at Los Angeles1.497.1%1st Place
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9.11Arizona State University0.662.8%1st Place
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6.46Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.456.5%1st Place
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9.98Western Washington University0.231.8%1st Place
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7.19University of Washington1.075.3%1st Place
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8.49University of California at Santa Cruz0.914.0%1st Place
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11.47University of California at Berkeley-0.221.3%1st Place
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11.59University of California at San Diego-0.241.5%1st Place
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14.33University of California at Davis-1.410.4%1st Place
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14.25San Diego State University-1.270.4%1st Place
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12.52University of California at Irvine-0.360.7%1st Place
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15.48California State University Channel Islands-1.980.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastien Rasse | 17.9% | 16.0% | 13.7% | 14.1% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reade Decker | 26.6% | 21.5% | 17.8% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Downey | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Wells | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Garrett Henderson | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kira Blumhagen | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Lucien Freemesser | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 13.6% | 14.7% | 12.6% | 6.7% | 1.6% |
| Max Mccreynolds | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 15.3% | 12.6% | 7.4% | 1.8% |
| Juliette Cramer | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 17.9% | 23.2% | 23.2% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 10.9% | 17.4% | 23.6% | 21.1% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 16.0% | 16.7% | 12.8% | 4.9% |
| Kurt Richards | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 10.9% | 22.1% | 46.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.