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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington1.07+3.28vs Predicted
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2University of British Columbia0.96+2.56vs Predicted
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3Western Washington University0.31+3.47vs Predicted
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4University of Washington1.07+0.31vs Predicted
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5Western Washington University-1.96+8.43vs Predicted
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6University of Washington-0.31+2.31vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University0.19-0.12vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University-0.47+1.01vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.18-2.07vs Predicted
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10University of Oregon-0.08-2.39vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-1.41+1.01vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University-1.06-1.09vs Predicted
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13University of Oregon-1.48-0.75vs Predicted
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14University of Washington-1.04-2.98vs Predicted
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15University of Oregon-0.68-5.24vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University-0.22-7.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.28University of Washington1.0716.8%1st Place
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4.56University of British Columbia0.9615.8%1st Place
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6.47Western Washington University0.316.6%1st Place
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4.31University of Washington1.0717.2%1st Place
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13.43Western Washington University-1.960.9%1st Place
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8.31University of Washington-0.315.2%1st Place
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6.88Western Washington University0.196.8%1st Place
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9.01Western Washington University-0.472.9%1st Place
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6.93University of Washington0.187.2%1st Place
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7.61University of Oregon-0.086.7%1st Place
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12.01Arizona State University-1.411.3%1st Place
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10.91Western Washington University-1.061.9%1st Place
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12.25University of Oregon-1.481.2%1st Place
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11.02University of Washington-1.041.8%1st Place
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9.76University of Oregon-0.682.7%1st Place
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8.26Western Washington University-0.224.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucien Freemesser | 16.8% | 16.2% | 14.0% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nelson Fretenburg | 15.8% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Blakemore | 6.6% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Brianne Abbott-Rogge | 17.2% | 15.1% | 14.3% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aliyah Dodge | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 17.9% | 38.7% |
| Kieran Lyons | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Yuri Berebitsky | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Lindburg | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 2.3% |
| Jaden Unruh | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Joseph Qualtier | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Patrick Gardiner | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 17.6% | 15.8% |
| Peter Hall | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 8.2% |
| Kate Ryan | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 18.7% | 18.6% |
| Ethan Eschbach | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 9.2% |
| Aidan Clark | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 4.0% |
| Ella Barnard | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.