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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley0.31+3.49vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.98+0.74vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+1.21vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-1.44vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-0.70+2.10vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+0.36vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles-0.96+0.30vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-1.60+0.88vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-1.58-0.26vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California-0.12-4.15vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-1.09-3.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.49University of California at Berkeley0.3110.8%1st Place
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2.74University of California at Berkeley0.9827.2%1st Place
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4.21University of California at Santa Cruz0.8211.6%1st Place
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2.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.4531.6%1st Place
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7.1University of California at San Diego-0.704.0%1st Place
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6.36Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.263.5%1st Place
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7.3University of California at Los Angeles-0.962.4%1st Place
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8.88Arizona State University-1.601.2%1st Place
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8.74University of California at Davis-1.581.1%1st Place
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5.85University of Southern California-0.125.0%1st Place
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7.77Arizona State University-1.091.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilton Lawton | 10.8% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 16.2% | 15.7% | 12.6% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Will Cornell | 27.2% | 24.6% | 20.2% | 13.8% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 11.6% | 13.6% | 14.6% | 16.6% | 16.4% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 31.6% | 25.0% | 19.1% | 12.1% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 13.7% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 8.0% |
| Florence Duff | 3.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 14.7% | 13.1% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 4.0% |
| Conrad Kistler | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 13.9% | 14.4% | 15.0% | 9.3% |
| Erin Welker | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 21.5% | 32.4% |
| Luke Melvin | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 18.5% | 31.4% |
| Lara Granucci | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 1.4% |
| Camden Wacha | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 16.4% | 17.1% | 13.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.