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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.74+3.34vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+4.83vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.73+8.18vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+4.20vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia3.54+2.89vs Predicted
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6Washington College3.65+1.63vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College4.15-1.12vs Predicted
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8Columbia University2.34+4.22vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University4.01-2.69vs Predicted
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10Cornell University3.27-0.83vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-6.01vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.68-0.59vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.66-5.55vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-3.36vs Predicted
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15William and Mary2.13-2.00vs Predicted
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16Princeton University1.50-1.14vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy1.22-1.41vs Predicted
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18Monmouth University1.95-4.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.34Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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6.83St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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11.18Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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8.2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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7.89University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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7.63Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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5.88SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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12.22Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
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6.31Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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9.17Cornell University3.270.1%1st Place
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4.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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11.41University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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7.45U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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10.64Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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13.0William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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14.86Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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15.59U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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13.4Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Barnard | 17.8% | 14.6% | 14.9% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 1.9% |
| Daniel Liberty | 6.0% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 10.6% | 11.6% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Billy Hines | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 9.3% | 5.5% |
| Dillon Paiva | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Samuel Blouin | 14.5% | 14.2% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 3.6% |
| Jason Carminati | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| Isaac Clark | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 8.6% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 19.3% | 27.1% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 18.7% | 39.7% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 14.2% | 16.2% | 10.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.