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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+10.02vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.73+9.16vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+3.76vs Predicted
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4Cornell University3.27+4.84vs Predicted
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5William and Mary2.13+7.81vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-1.24vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University4.01-0.77vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia3.54-0.11vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-0.85vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University4.74-5.75vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College4.15-5.05vs Predicted
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12Columbia University2.34+0.59vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.68-2.06vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.50+0.51vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy1.22+0.44vs Predicted
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16Monmouth University1.95-2.38vs Predicted
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17Washington College3.65-9.26vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy3.38-9.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.02Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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11.16Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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6.76St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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8.84Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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12.81William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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4.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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6.23Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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7.89University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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8.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.0%1st Place
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4.25Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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5.95SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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12.59Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
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10.94University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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14.51Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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15.44U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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13.62Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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7.74Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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8.33U. S. Naval Academy3.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 3.2% |
| Alexander Sachs | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 2.2% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Isaac Clark | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 8.5% |
| Samuel Blouin | 14.8% | 13.9% | 12.9% | 13.7% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Daniel Liberty | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Chris Barnard | 18.9% | 15.3% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Billy Hines | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 12.9% | 6.3% |
| Michael Russom | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 1.8% |
| Gene Merewether | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 17.1% | 24.7% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 11.4% | 18.8% | 37.8% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 16.4% | 14.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Vann | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.