← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+7.30vs Predicted
-
2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+4.56vs Predicted
-
3Georgetown University4.74+1.07vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania2.68+6.82vs Predicted
-
5Washington College3.65+2.40vs Predicted
-
6SUNY Maritime College3.28+2.76vs Predicted
-
7Fordham University2.73+3.81vs Predicted
-
8Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-3.39vs Predicted
-
9University of Virginia3.54-1.28vs Predicted
-
10Old Dominion University4.01-3.63vs Predicted
-
11Cornell University3.27-2.07vs Predicted
-
12William and Mary2.13+1.18vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Naval Academy3.66-5.78vs Predicted
-
14Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-3.52vs Predicted
-
15Monmouth University1.95-1.59vs Predicted
-
16Columbia University2.34-3.69vs Predicted
-
17Princeton University1.50-2.21vs Predicted
-
18U. S. Military Academy1.22-2.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
-
6.56St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
-
4.07Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
-
10.82University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
-
7.4Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
-
8.76SUNY Maritime College3.280.0%1st Place
-
10.81Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
-
4.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.2%1st Place
-
7.72University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
-
6.37Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
-
8.93Cornell University3.270.1%1st Place
-
13.18William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
-
7.22U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
-
10.48Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
-
13.41Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
-
12.31Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
-
14.79Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
-
15.25U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Liberty | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Chris Barnard | 17.8% | 18.0% | 14.2% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 2.6% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 2.8% |
| Michael Whitford | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Randall Hartranft | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 4.6% | 2.6% |
| Samuel Blouin | 16.0% | 16.7% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Isaac Clark | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 14.7% | 15.4% | 9.7% |
| Jason Carminati | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 16.0% | 11.6% |
| Billy Hines | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 6.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 19.3% | 28.4% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 18.7% | 34.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.