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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College3.65+6.55vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.74+2.13vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+1.76vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University4.01+2.07vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.68+5.85vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.28+2.79vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.73+3.77vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-1.60vs Predicted
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9Monmouth University1.95+4.46vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.66-2.41vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-0.14vs Predicted
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12Columbia University2.34+0.48vs Predicted
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13Cornell University3.27-4.38vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia3.54-6.45vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-6.89vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy1.22-0.52vs Predicted
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17Princeton University1.50-2.21vs Predicted
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18William and Mary2.13-5.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.55Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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4.13Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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4.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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6.07Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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10.85University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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8.79SUNY Maritime College3.280.0%1st Place
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10.77Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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6.4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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13.46Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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7.59U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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10.86Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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12.48Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
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8.62Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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7.55University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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8.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.0%1st Place
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15.48U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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14.79Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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12.73William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Whitford | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Chris Barnard | 15.6% | 17.2% | 16.1% | 13.7% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 14.4% | 13.8% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Michael Russom | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| Randall Hartranft | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 16.3% | 11.1% |
| Jason Carminati | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 2.6% |
| Billy Hines | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 15.1% | 10.2% | 6.7% |
| Philip Alley | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 18.7% | 39.1% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 21.6% | 26.8% |
| Isaac Clark | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.