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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+4.04vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.74+2.23vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.66+4.75vs Predicted
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4Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+6.76vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+3.24vs Predicted
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6Cornell University3.27+3.03vs Predicted
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7University of Virginia3.54+1.03vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University4.01-1.71vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-2.36vs Predicted
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10Columbia University2.34+2.58vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.68+0.28vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College4.15-5.84vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy1.22+2.30vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.73-3.29vs Predicted
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15Monmouth University1.95-1.42vs Predicted
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16Washington College3.65-8.34vs Predicted
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17Princeton University1.50-2.14vs Predicted
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18William and Mary2.13-5.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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4.23Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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7.75U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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10.76Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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8.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.0%1st Place
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9.03Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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8.03University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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6.29Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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6.64St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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12.58Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
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11.28University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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6.16SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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15.3U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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10.71Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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13.58Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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7.66Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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14.86Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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12.86William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Blouin | 13.9% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 17.3% | 15.8% | 15.2% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Carminati | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 2.6% |
| Daniel Liberty | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Philip Alley | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Dillon Paiva | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Billy Hines | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 5.6% |
| Michael Russom | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 2.8% |
| Shawn Murray | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 18.0% | 36.5% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Paul Stevens | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 14.6% | 15.2% | 12.7% |
| Michael Whitford | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 12.7% | 19.3% | 28.6% |
| Isaac Clark | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 8.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.