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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College4.15+5.01vs Predicted
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2Cornell University3.27+7.18vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.54+5.11vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.68+6.84vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University4.01+1.26vs Predicted
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6Washington College3.65+1.52vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.73+3.81vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.66-0.58vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-2.49vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-5.03vs Predicted
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11Columbia University2.34+1.21vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University4.74-7.60vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-2.36vs Predicted
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14William and Mary2.13-1.44vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-6.84vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy1.22-0.75vs Predicted
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17Monmouth University1.95-3.60vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.21-1.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.01SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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9.18Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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8.11University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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10.84University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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6.26Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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7.52Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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10.81Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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7.42U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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6.51St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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4.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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12.21Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
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4.4Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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10.64Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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12.56William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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8.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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15.25U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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13.4Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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16.77Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Murray | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 3.3% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 0.9% |
| Dillon Paiva | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 0.9% |
| Jason Carminati | 6.0% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 7.5% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 14.0% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Billy Hines | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 14.2% | 9.0% | 2.6% |
| Chris Barnard | 18.6% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 16.8% | 10.3% | 4.1% |
| Daniel Liberty | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 31.9% | 20.6% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 18.8% | 5.6% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 16.2% | 64.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.