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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia3.54+7.11vs Predicted
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2Washington College3.65+5.74vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+1.97vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University4.74+0.15vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.66+2.44vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+0.61vs Predicted
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7Cornell University3.27+1.94vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+0.04vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University4.01-2.74vs Predicted
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10Columbia University2.34+2.26vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-0.21vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.68-0.67vs Predicted
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13Monmouth University1.95+0.13vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College4.15-8.36vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.73-4.25vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy1.22-0.80vs Predicted
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17William and Mary2.13-4.10vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.21-1.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.11University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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7.74Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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4.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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4.15Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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7.44U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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6.61St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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8.94Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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8.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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6.26Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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12.26Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
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10.79Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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11.33University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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13.13Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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5.64SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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10.75Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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15.2U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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12.9William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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16.75Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Wolcott | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 13.1% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 19.2% | 17.4% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Carminati | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Liberty | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 8.2% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Billy Hines | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 1.8% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Michael Russom | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 1.4% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 16.5% | 14.7% | 5.2% |
| Shawn Murray | 12.1% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 29.8% | 21.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 16.4% | 14.0% | 4.0% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 6.2% | 14.9% | 64.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.