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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.74+3.23vs Predicted
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2Washington College3.65+5.80vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+5.43vs Predicted
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4Cornell University3.27+4.76vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.68+5.86vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.66+1.52vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College4.15-1.17vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia3.54-0.10vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.73+1.83vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-3.21vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-6.12vs Predicted
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12William and Mary2.13+1.08vs Predicted
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13Columbia University2.34-1.05vs Predicted
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14Monmouth University1.95-0.91vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University4.01-8.76vs Predicted
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16Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-5.16vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.21-0.06vs Predicted
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18U. S. Military Academy1.22-2.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.23Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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7.8Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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8.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.0%1st Place
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8.76Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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10.86University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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7.52U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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5.83SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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7.9University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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10.83Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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6.79St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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4.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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13.08William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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11.95Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
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13.09Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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6.24Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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10.84Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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16.94Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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15.05U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Barnard | 19.0% | 15.8% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Michael Russom | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 0.9% |
| Jason Carminati | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 10.2% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 14.3% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 15.6% | 14.7% | 4.8% |
| Billy Hines | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 16.6% | 16.7% | 4.5% |
| Dillon Paiva | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 1.0% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 15.1% | 67.2% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 17.2% | 29.6% | 18.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.