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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.74+3.09vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.66+5.48vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.68+8.12vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.73+6.48vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+1.34vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University4.01+0.10vs Predicted
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7University of Virginia3.54+0.66vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.28+0.55vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+1.56vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-1.79vs Predicted
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11Cornell University3.27-2.18vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-7.09vs Predicted
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13William and Mary2.13-0.45vs Predicted
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14Monmouth University1.95-1.03vs Predicted
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15Washington College3.65-7.78vs Predicted
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16Columbia University2.34-3.97vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy1.22-1.82vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.21-1.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.09Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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7.48U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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11.12University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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10.48Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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6.34St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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6.1Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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7.66University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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8.55SUNY Maritime College3.280.0%1st Place
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10.56Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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8.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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8.82Cornell University3.270.1%1st Place
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4.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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12.55William and Mary2.130.0%1st Place
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12.97Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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7.22Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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12.03Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
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15.18U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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16.75Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Barnard | 17.8% | 18.3% | 15.3% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Carminati | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 0.8% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 9.1% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Randall Hartranft | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 0.7% |
| Daniel Liberty | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Blouin | 15.0% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Clark | 2.0% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 15.7% | 12.2% | 3.5% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 15.9% | 14.3% | 6.1% |
| Michael Whitford | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Billy Hines | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 2.9% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 14.6% | 32.0% | 20.4% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 16.9% | 63.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.