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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University4.21+2.30vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.98+1.67vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.08+2.91vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.50+0.92vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley2.60+2.34vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.85+0.64vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64+2.95vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy3.79-3.77vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley1.57+1.24vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis2.13-1.26vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay2.30-2.79vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay1.35-1.00vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz1.87-3.43vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis0.12-0.68vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay0.32-2.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.3Stanford University4.210.2%1st Place
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3.67Stanford University3.980.2%1st Place
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5.91Stanford University3.080.1%1st Place
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4.92Stanford University3.500.1%1st Place
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7.34University of California at Berkeley2.600.1%1st Place
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6.64Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.850.0%1st Place
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9.95Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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4.23California Poly Maritime Academy3.790.1%1st Place
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10.24University of California at Berkeley1.570.0%1st Place
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8.74University of California at Davis2.130.0%1st Place
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8.21California State University Monterey Bay2.300.0%1st Place
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11.0California State University Monterey Bay1.350.0%1st Place
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9.57University of California at Santa Cruz1.870.0%1st Place
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13.32University of California at Davis0.120.0%1st Place
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12.95California State University Monterey Bay0.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Hatton | 23.9% | 19.9% | 16.3% | 15.3% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin Doane | 20.2% | 17.5% | 17.4% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eliza Richartz | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nick Dugdale | 10.7% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Shevitz | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Soper | 4.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Erik Lund | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 14.1% | 10.0% | 3.5% |
| Sean Kelly | 14.9% | 15.1% | 15.8% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aubrey Toole | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 14.9% | 11.4% | 3.8% |
| Michael Lazzaro | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 1.0% |
| Bradley Schoch | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 0.7% |
| Kellsy Panno | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 14.8% | 17.8% | 15.4% | 7.0% |
| Mickail Murawski | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 2.2% |
| Christopher Hagerman | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 21.5% | 45.3% |
| Janet Rumsey | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 13.0% | 23.6% | 36.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.