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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+6.51vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+3.94vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.67+3.56vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College3.60+2.58vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+0.46vs Predicted
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6Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+6.37vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.16+1.19vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.83-2.17vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University4.51-5.07vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.77-0.10vs Predicted
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11Washington College2.29+0.47vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University0.98+3.57vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.99-0.73vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.81-1.25vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia3.01-6.24vs Predicted
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16William and Mary1.27-1.32vs Predicted
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17Fordham University2.04-4.65vs Predicted
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18George Washington University2.38-7.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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5.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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6.56Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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6.58SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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5.46St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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12.37Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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8.19University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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5.83U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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3.93Georgetown University4.510.2%1st Place
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9.9Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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11.47Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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15.57Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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12.27Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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12.75Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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8.76University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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14.68William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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12.35Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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10.89George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Herring | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Austen Anderson | 7.2% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harry Scott | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 11.6% | 13.0% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 6.4% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Alex Ramos | 10.2% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Bolger | 20.4% | 18.2% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.3% |
| Mildred Conroy | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 3.6% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 17.6% | 40.1% |
| John Croll | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 5.9% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 13.6% | 8.5% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Jonathan Conway | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 12.9% | 20.0% | 24.9% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 5.7% |
| Ian Connors | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.