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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.60+5.90vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.51+2.05vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+2.88vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.16+4.11vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+0.48vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+1.30vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.83-1.08vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.67-1.66vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.77+0.59vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.29+1.61vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia3.01-2.10vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.04+0.56vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-0.79vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.81-1.23vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.99-2.58vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.38-4.88vs Predicted
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17William and Mary1.27-2.31vs Predicted
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18Monmouth University0.98-2.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.9SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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4.05Georgetown University4.510.2%1st Place
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5.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.11University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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5.48St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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7.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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5.92U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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6.34Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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9.59Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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11.61Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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8.9University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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12.56Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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12.21Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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12.77Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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12.42Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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11.12George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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14.69William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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15.17Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Scott | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Bolger | 16.9% | 17.4% | 16.0% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austen Anderson | 9.7% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 12.0% | 13.5% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gary Herring | 7.0% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Alex Ramos | 9.7% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Mildred Conroy | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 3.3% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 7.6% |
| Christian Geary | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 6.4% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 9.3% |
| John Croll | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 7.5% |
| Ian Connors | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 2.8% |
| Jonathan Conway | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 18.5% | 27.0% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 16.5% | 33.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.