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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+4.97vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.83+4.03vs Predicted
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3Washington College2.84+6.59vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.67+2.36vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+0.44vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.60+0.64vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University4.51-3.00vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.77+1.42vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.04+3.21vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+2.44vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-3.61vs Predicted
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12Columbia University1.99+0.61vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.81-0.20vs Predicted
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14William and Mary1.27+0.31vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania3.16-6.88vs Predicted
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16Monmouth University0.98-0.68vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.57-3.18vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia3.01-9.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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6.03U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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9.59Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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6.36Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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5.44St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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6.64SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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4.0Georgetown University4.510.2%1st Place
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9.42Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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12.21Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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12.44Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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7.39U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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12.61Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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12.8Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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14.31William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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8.12University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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15.32Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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13.82George Washington University1.570.0%1st Place
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8.54University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Anderson | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Ramos | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 9.5% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 12.5% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harry Scott | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Bolger | 19.7% | 18.2% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 4.2% |
| Christian Geary | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 5.5% |
| Gary Herring | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 6.9% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 8.1% |
| Jonathan Conway | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 17.4% | 22.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 12.5% | 17.1% | 36.2% |
| Hussain Patel | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 14.5% | 15.7% | 15.7% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.