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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+5.08vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.51+2.10vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.60+3.95vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.16+4.25vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.83+1.00vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.38+5.20vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96-1.43vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-0.64vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.07+3.27vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+2.69vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia3.01-1.95vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University3.67-5.19vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.77-3.37vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.84-4.80vs Predicted
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15Monmouth University0.98+0.41vs Predicted
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16Princeton University1.81-2.72vs Predicted
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17William and Mary1.27-2.18vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.04-5.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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4.1Georgetown University4.510.2%1st Place
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6.95SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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8.25University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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6.0U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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11.2George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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5.57St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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7.36U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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12.27Columbia University2.070.0%1st Place
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12.69Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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9.05University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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6.81Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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9.63Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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9.2Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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15.41Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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13.28Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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14.82William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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12.31Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Anderson | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Bolger | 16.1% | 18.2% | 15.0% | 13.9% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harry Scott | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Alex Ramos | 10.2% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Connors | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 3.2% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 12.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gary Herring | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 4.6% |
| Christian Geary | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 7.4% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 18.6% | 36.8% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 14.9% | 11.8% |
| Jonathan Conway | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 13.3% | 19.4% | 27.9% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 9.3% | 5.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.