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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+5.07vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.60+4.99vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.70+3.65vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+1.52vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.83+0.98vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University4.51-1.96vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+0.41vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia3.01+0.83vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.38+2.22vs Predicted
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10Columbia University2.07+2.47vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.04+1.46vs Predicted
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12Princeton University1.81+1.47vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania3.16-4.78vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.84-4.76vs Predicted
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15Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-2.55vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.77-6.11vs Predicted
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17Monmouth University0.98-1.48vs Predicted
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18William and Mary1.27-3.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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6.99SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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6.65Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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5.52St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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5.98U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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4.04Georgetown University4.510.2%1st Place
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7.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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8.83University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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11.22George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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12.47Columbia University2.070.0%1st Place
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12.46Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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13.47Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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8.22University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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9.24Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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12.45Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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9.89Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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15.52Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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14.57William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Anderson | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harry Scott | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 7.9% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 12.4% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Ramos | 11.1% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Bolger | 18.3% | 18.3% | 14.8% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gary Herring | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Ian Connors | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 2.0% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 6.1% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 7.7% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 16.5% | 11.9% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Christian Geary | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 7.1% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 17.7% | 40.8% |
| Jonathan Conway | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 20.0% | 22.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.