← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+4.96vs Predicted
-
2Old Dominion University3.70+4.53vs Predicted
-
3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+2.53vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania3.16+4.11vs Predicted
-
5SUNY Maritime College3.60+1.68vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University2.77+3.69vs Predicted
-
7University of Virginia3.01+1.79vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-0.76vs Predicted
-
9Washington College2.29+2.42vs Predicted
-
10Georgetown University4.51-5.92vs Predicted
-
11Columbia University2.07+1.33vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Naval Academy3.83-5.79vs Predicted
-
13Fordham University2.04-0.87vs Predicted
-
14Princeton University1.81-1.18vs Predicted
-
15George Washington University2.38-3.94vs Predicted
-
16Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-3.55vs Predicted
-
17William and Mary1.27-2.25vs Predicted
-
18Monmouth University0.98-2.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
-
6.53Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
-
5.53St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
-
8.11University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
-
6.68SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
-
9.69Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
-
8.79University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
-
7.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
-
11.42Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
-
4.08Georgetown University4.510.2%1st Place
-
12.33Columbia University2.070.0%1st Place
-
6.21U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
-
12.13Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
-
12.82Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
-
11.06George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
-
12.45Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
-
14.75William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
-
15.22Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Anderson | 10.0% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 11.2% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.2% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Harry Scott | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.0% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Gary Herring | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Sydney Bolger | 18.2% | 16.7% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 6.7% |
| Alex Ramos | 9.5% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 6.1% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 9.2% |
| Ian Connors | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Christian Geary | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 6.8% |
| Jonathan Conway | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 19.4% | 27.4% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 11.7% | 17.5% | 36.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.