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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.51+3.13vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+3.99vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+4.44vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.77+5.54vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.83+0.91vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.60+0.74vs Predicted
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7Princeton University1.81+5.99vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania3.16+0.14vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96-3.54vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia3.01-0.97vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.04+1.32vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.29-0.26vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University3.70-6.74vs Predicted
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14Columbia University2.07-2.10vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.38-3.95vs Predicted
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16Monmouth University0.98-0.56vs Predicted
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17William and Mary1.27-2.28vs Predicted
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18Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-5.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.13Georgetown University4.510.2%1st Place
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5.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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7.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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9.54Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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5.91U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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6.74SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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12.99Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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8.14University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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5.46St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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9.03University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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12.32Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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11.74Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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6.26Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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11.9Columbia University2.070.0%1st Place
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11.05George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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15.44Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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14.72William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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12.21Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Bolger | 18.1% | 17.1% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austen Anderson | 8.6% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gary Herring | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Alex Ramos | 10.7% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harry Scott | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 15.1% | 8.9% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.5% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 10.7% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 6.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 4.5% |
| Brady Stagg | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 5.4% |
| Ian Connors | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.1% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 16.7% | 39.1% |
| Jonathan Conway | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 20.2% | 25.7% |
| Christian Geary | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 5.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.