← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+4.57vs Predicted
-
2University of Pennsylvania3.16+6.38vs Predicted
-
3Georgetown University4.51+1.04vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Naval Academy3.67+2.30vs Predicted
-
5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+0.72vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University2.77+3.65vs Predicted
-
7SUNY Maritime College3.60-0.28vs Predicted
-
8Old Dominion University3.70-1.76vs Predicted
-
9William and Mary1.37+5.43vs Predicted
-
10Fordham University2.04+2.41vs Predicted
-
11University of Virginia3.01-2.13vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-4.45vs Predicted
-
13Washington College2.29-1.68vs Predicted
-
14Columbia University2.07-2.08vs Predicted
-
15George Washington University2.38-3.92vs Predicted
-
16Monmouth University0.98-0.58vs Predicted
-
17Princeton University1.81-3.81vs Predicted
-
18Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-5.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.57St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
-
8.38University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
-
4.04Georgetown University4.510.2%1st Place
-
6.3U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
-
5.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
-
9.65Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
-
6.72SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
-
6.24Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
-
14.43William and Mary1.370.0%1st Place
-
12.41Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
-
8.87University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
-
7.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
-
11.32Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
-
11.92Columbia University2.070.0%1st Place
-
11.08George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
-
15.42Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
-
13.19Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
-
12.21Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 11.0% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Sydney Bolger | 18.6% | 17.1% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Grove | 9.4% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Austen Anderson | 11.5% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Harry Scott | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bill Parker | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 19.8% | 21.7% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 7.3% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Gary Herring | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Mildred Conroy | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 3.9% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 4.2% |
| Ian Connors | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 2.2% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 17.4% | 40.1% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 14.3% | 12.3% |
| Christian Geary | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 6.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.