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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+4.92vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.70+4.47vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+2.52vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+3.17vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University4.51-1.07vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.67+0.44vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.04+5.23vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.77+1.57vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.29+2.37vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College3.60-3.11vs Predicted
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11Columbia University2.07+1.29vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia3.01-2.94vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.81-0.06vs Predicted
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14William and Mary1.37+0.21vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania3.16-6.83vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.38-4.86vs Predicted
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17Monmouth University0.98-1.54vs Predicted
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18Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-5.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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6.47Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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5.52St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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7.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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3.93Georgetown University4.510.2%1st Place
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6.44U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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12.23Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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9.57Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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11.37Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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6.89SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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12.29Columbia University2.070.0%1st Place
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9.06University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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12.94Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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14.21William and Mary1.370.0%1st Place
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8.17University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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11.14George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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15.46Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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12.22Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Anderson | 10.8% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 10.4% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gary Herring | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sydney Bolger | 21.1% | 19.5% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Grove | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 6.6% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Mildred Conroy | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 5.7% | 3.3% |
| Harry Scott | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 6.6% |
| Christopher Stessing | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 14.6% | 9.9% |
| Bill Parker | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 20.2% | 20.3% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ian Connors | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 15.5% | 42.1% |
| Christian Geary | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 6.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.