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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.67+5.78vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.70+4.62vs Predicted
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3Washington College3.07+5.92vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+1.53vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University4.51-1.03vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+1.48vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College3.60-0.19vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-2.17vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.77+0.77vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania3.16-1.42vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+1.60vs Predicted
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12Columbia University2.07+0.66vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia3.01-4.14vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.81-1.08vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.04-2.58vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.38-4.69vs Predicted
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17William and Mary1.37-2.39vs Predicted
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18Monmouth University0.98-2.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.78U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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6.62Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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8.92Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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5.53St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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3.97Georgetown University4.510.2%1st Place
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7.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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6.81SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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5.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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9.77Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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8.58University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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12.6Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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12.66Columbia University2.070.0%1st Place
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8.86University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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12.92Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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12.42Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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11.31George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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14.61William and Mary1.370.0%1st Place
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15.32Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Grove | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 12.2% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Bolger | 22.4% | 16.6% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gary Herring | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Harry Scott | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Austen Anderson | 9.6% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Christian Geary | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 7.7% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 7.7% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Samantha Gebb | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 9.6% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 8.7% | 7.4% |
| Ian Connors | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 3.7% |
| Bill Parker | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 19.7% | 24.6% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 18.0% | 37.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.