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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University3.70+5.65vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+3.99vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania3.16+5.55vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University4.51+0.03vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.60+1.77vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.67+0.59vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96-1.38vs Predicted
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8Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+4.41vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-1.62vs Predicted
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10Washington College3.07-1.08vs Predicted
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11Princeton University1.81+2.32vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia3.01-2.69vs Predicted
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13William and Mary1.37+1.29vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.77-4.37vs Predicted
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15Columbia University2.07-2.64vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.04-3.49vs Predicted
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17Monmouth University0.98-1.41vs Predicted
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18George Washington University2.38-6.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.65Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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5.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.55University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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4.03Georgetown University4.510.2%1st Place
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6.77SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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6.59U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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5.62St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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12.41Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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7.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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8.92Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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13.32Princeton University1.810.0%1st Place
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9.31University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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14.29William and Mary1.370.0%1st Place
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9.63Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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12.36Columbia University2.070.0%1st Place
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12.51Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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15.59Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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11.09George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Stagg | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Austen Anderson | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Sydney Bolger | 19.8% | 18.7% | 14.1% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harry Scott | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Grove | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 12.1% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 5.9% |
| Gary Herring | 5.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Samantha Gebb | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 16.9% | 11.6% |
| Christopher Stessing | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Bill Parker | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 18.1% | 22.8% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 6.3% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 7.7% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 17.8% | 41.2% |
| Ian Connors | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.